FORECASTING OF SMALL CARDAMOM PRICE USING SARIMA MODEL

Abstract

The study was undertaken to identify a model for forecasting the price of small cardamom using the data consisting of prices from January 2001 to December 2021 obtained from Spices Board, Government of India, Ministry of Commerce and Industry, New Delhi. Seasonal Auto regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used to forecast the future monthly prices. The SARIMA model, ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,1)[12] was identified to be the best model for forecasting the monthly cardamom price according to the minimal Bayesian Information Criterion.