Role of Government in Promoting Real Sector Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Nigerian Experience

Thankgod M., V. O.
{"title":"Role of Government in Promoting Real Sector Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Nigerian Experience","authors":"Thankgod M., V. O.","doi":"10.52589/ajsshr-y4estviu","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigated the role of government in promoting real sector development in sub-Saharan Africa with a focus on the Nigerian economy. The government’s role was measured using fiscal and monetary policy variables such as total government expenditure, broad money supply and interest rate, while the ratio of manufacturing value added to GDP formed the basis for measuring real sector development. Time series data on the variables were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and analysed using econometrics tools of error correction mechanism (ECM) and Granger causality test. The unit root test results revealed that all the variables are first difference stationary. It was also found from the cointegration test that variables have a long-run relationship. It was found from the parsimonious ECM that broad money supply and rate of interest are statistically insignificant in influencing manufacturing output. The results further reveal that the second and third leg of the government expenditure ratio to GDP significantly impacts manufacturing output. 1 percent increase in the first leg of government expenditure increases manufacturing output by 5.962 percent. Similarly, with a percentage in the second lag of government expenditure, manufacturing output increases by 3.182 percent. Additionally, the pairwise Granger causality test results reveal that unidirectional causality flows from the ratio of government expenditure to manufacturing output. Overall, the results indicate that fiscal policy, especially government expenditure, can be relied upon in predicting changes in manufacturing output. Thus, it is recommended for proper monitoring of fiscal policy measures, especially public expenditures, to ensure they are accounted for holistically and effectively utilised in fostering real sector development.","PeriodicalId":363531,"journal":{"name":"African Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Research","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-05-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"African Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities Research","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.52589/ajsshr-y4estviu","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

Abstract

This paper investigated the role of government in promoting real sector development in sub-Saharan Africa with a focus on the Nigerian economy. The government’s role was measured using fiscal and monetary policy variables such as total government expenditure, broad money supply and interest rate, while the ratio of manufacturing value added to GDP formed the basis for measuring real sector development. Time series data on the variables were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin and analysed using econometrics tools of error correction mechanism (ECM) and Granger causality test. The unit root test results revealed that all the variables are first difference stationary. It was also found from the cointegration test that variables have a long-run relationship. It was found from the parsimonious ECM that broad money supply and rate of interest are statistically insignificant in influencing manufacturing output. The results further reveal that the second and third leg of the government expenditure ratio to GDP significantly impacts manufacturing output. 1 percent increase in the first leg of government expenditure increases manufacturing output by 5.962 percent. Similarly, with a percentage in the second lag of government expenditure, manufacturing output increases by 3.182 percent. Additionally, the pairwise Granger causality test results reveal that unidirectional causality flows from the ratio of government expenditure to manufacturing output. Overall, the results indicate that fiscal policy, especially government expenditure, can be relied upon in predicting changes in manufacturing output. Thus, it is recommended for proper monitoring of fiscal policy measures, especially public expenditures, to ensure they are accounted for holistically and effectively utilised in fostering real sector development.
政府在促进撒哈拉以南非洲实体部门发展中的作用:尼日利亚的经验
本文研究了政府在促进撒哈拉以南非洲实体部门发展中的作用,重点是尼日利亚经济。政府的作用是用财政和货币政策变量来衡量的,比如政府总支出、广义货币供应量和利率,而制造业增加值占GDP的比例是衡量实体部门发展的基础。变量的时间序列数据来自尼日利亚中央银行统计公报,并使用误差修正机制(ECM)和格兰杰因果检验的计量经济学工具进行分析。单位根检验结果表明,各变量均为一阶差分平稳。协整检验还发现,变量之间存在着长期的关系。从简约的ECM中发现,广义货币供应量和利率对制造业产出的影响在统计上不显著。结果进一步表明,政府支出占GDP的比例的第二和第三腿显著影响制造业产出。第一阶段政府支出每增加1%,制造业产出就会增长5.962%。同样,在政府支出第二滞后的百分比下,制造业产出增长了3.182%。此外,两两格兰杰因果检验结果显示,单向因果关系从政府支出占制造业产出的比例流出。总体而言,结果表明财政政策,特别是政府支出,可以依赖于预测制造业产出的变化。因此,建议适当监测财政政策措施,特别是公共支出,以确保全面和有效地利用这些措施促进实体部门的发展。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 求助全文
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术官方微信