NCAA Football and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning: A Probability Analysis

Abstract

Large venue events present inherent risks, both natural and man-made, for spectators and players alike. Lightning frequency and location is one of the most difficult hazards to forecast. This research investigates cloud-to-ground lightning strikes that occurred within 15 miles of the 81 NCAA football stadiums within the Southeast region of the United States. The domain of the study covers an area of the Mid-South from the Gulf of Mexico north to southern Illinois and from eastern Texas east to western Georgia. Using the NCAA policy on lightning as a guideline, probabilities of risk from lightning were found at various radii from each stadium during the time of day and year in which NCAA football games are played. Additionally, the average delay time due to lightning and near-stadium strike lead times were investigated. While individual stadium statistics were calculated, entire study area and latitudinal divisions are presented temporally