Relationship between tourism sector and export: VAR analysis using Kazakhstan as case study

Abstract

Tourism is one of the increasingly dynamic sectors of the economy. In many countries, tourism plays an important role in the formation of gross domestic product, in activating foreign trade balance, in creating a lot of businesses and in employment. The contribution of tourism sector to the country's economy is difficult to calculate exactly because this sector is also, directly and indirectly, contributing to other sectors. Generally speaking, tourism always has a positive effect on economic growth. From the date of Kazakhstan independence declaration, tourism sector has always been given special importance. In Kazakhstan, tourism seems to have developed rapidly, especially after the declaration of independence, and is trying to gain its place in the international tourism. The aim of our work in this context is to test whether there is a relationship between tourism and export revenues and to identify the possible contributions of this sector to export-based economic growth. Thus, time series for the variables of tourism revenues and export revenues, between 1995 and 2015, were examined using the VAR model. The empirical results showed that both tourism revenues and export revenues have their impact on tourism revenues. In conclusion, tourism is a major sector of Kazakhstan’s economy and it serves as a good source of foreign exchange. In this regard, investments in the aforesaid sphere of the country and the enactment of favourable policies lead to economic growth.