Forecasts and Impact on the Electrical Grid with the Expansion of Electric Vehicles in Northeast of Brazil

Abstract

The evolution of electromobility requires an increase in the energy supply to charge electric vehicles. This paper demonstrates the impact of these charging operations, resulted from studies conducted in the city of São Luis, in Northeast Brazil. The study is conducted in a scenario which forecasts the number of electric vehicles and energy consumption segmented by fleet types until 2030. One of the objectives pursued was the creation of a demand profile based on a survey conducted among electric vehicle drivers. According to the Bass diffusion model implemented, the fleet will reach 17,700 electric vehicles in 2030 and will represent 7.80% of the power demanded in the city during peak demand hours. A growth rate of 46.18% should occur between 2025 and 2030. The forecast of energy consumption with the charge of electric vehicles is 123.27 TWh by 2030, approximately 16.37 % of the total Brazilian consumption.