Digital Drift and the Evolution of a Large Cybercrime Forum

Abstract

Cybercrime forum datasets are large and complex. Prior research uses aggregated time series data to create a picture of the whole dataset, or focuses on a smaller sample of cross sectional data, often for a specific subcommunity or crime time. This paper uses the longitudinal time series aspect of cybercrime forums to measure and observe the evolution of forums at a macro scale. Applying the digital drift theoretical framework, borrowed from criminology, we find a large amount of churn on the forum, with only a small proportion of users continuing long-term engagement. Measurements show a continual shift in forum activity, with yearbased cohorts moving from starting in hacking discussions, towards starting in general discussions, and later towards e-whoring boards. The group of members who are active on the forum for over 12 months, typically have their last post in the marketplace, while other members, who are active for shorter periods of time, have their last post in hacking-related boards. Overall, we see an increasing trend towards financially-driven cybercrime, at both the user and forum level. Users post more in financially-related boards over time, and forum activity has trended away from gaming/social activity, trending towards more activity in market-related boards.