Novel grey model for predicting casualties of strong earthquakes erupting in high population density areas

Abstract

Being able to forecast time series accurately has been quite a popular subject for researchers both in the past and at present. Aiming at the problem of predicting time series of casualties of strong earthquakes erupting in high population density areas, considering the characteristics of time series of casualties from these emergencies disaster systems, on the basis of existing research results on grey forecasting models, this paper proposes a novel grey forecasting model. The accuracies of different grey models such as GM (1, 1) model, DGM (1, 1) model, novel grey model using casualties time series is investigated. The performances of the different grey models are compared. The simulation results show the novel grey model has the highest performances on model forecasting.