Total supply capability for city distribution systems based on the probability load growth

Abstract

This study, considering the probability load growth and load distribution imbalance, proposes a mathematical model for city total supply capability (CTSC). First, it introduces the concepts to CTSC and available load supply capability (ALSC); second, using multi-scenario method to analyze the future load, so it could get some possible load scenarios; then the model is translated into linear constrained optimization method to calculate CTSC under each scenario. So it could get CTSC with the scenarios' probability, which is most suitable one for the probability load growth and the load distribution; finally, the results from a real distribution system testify the effectiveness of the proposed model.