Model of Closure of Cycles (“Economic Cross”) as a Foresight Tool for Integrated Development of the Industry

Abstract

The article proposes a methodology for foresight analysis of the development of a regional industry complex and tools for its implementing, taking into account the peculiarities of the processes of technological transformations taking place in the modern economies of Russia and the world. Attention is paid to the problems arising from the inconsistency of tasks solved through the use of traditional approaches and methods of planning the development of regional industrial complexes, and new economic challenges in the field of economic planning, due to the transformation of the technological demands of production processes. The procedure for introducing an innovative methodology for closing cycles (“economic cross”) in the process of industry development foresight was developed by the authors taking into account the peculiarities of the functioning of the regional economy, including the peculiarities of the infrastructural and personnel asymmetry of the regions in which the modernization of the sectoral production complex is planned. The proposed methodology can be used for the purposes of industry development foresight both as an independent tool and in combination with other tools for planning and forecasting, including the method of constructing intersectoral balances, which is actively used in Russian and international practice. The practical significance of the cycle closure model (“economic cross”) lies in the possibility of its use for the purposes of industry complex development digital modeling without any changes compared to offline practice due to the fact that the proposed model allows us to represent a complex economic process as modules and flows described parametrically. The article presents a description of the most recommended economic and mathematical parameters for inclusion in the model and provides recommendations for determining their basic values.