Short-term photovoltaic prediction by using H∞ filtering and clustering

Abstract

This paper deals with prediction algorithm applying for photovoltaic (PV) systems in smart grid. This prediction is aim to predict the amount of the next day of generation using the previous data and the weather forecast which get from Japan Meteorological Agency. The procedure of prediction consists of two steps, the data processing and the unknown parameters estimation. In the data processing, our proposed method considers the characteristics of PV generation using cluster ensemble. We propose the cluster ensemble based on k-means to choose the groups with a correlation with previous data. In the unknown parameters estimation, we provide the regression model for PV generation and the unknown parameters are estimated via H∞ filtering. The effectiveness of the proposed prediction method is demonstrated through numerical simulations.