The results of scenario modeling of the influence of environmental factors on the innovative development of the domestic agricultural sector of the economy

Abstract

Introduction. The operation of any system occurs within the external environment. Most often, the interaction be-tween the object of study and the external environment is considered at the micro level, as for the entity separation of envi-ronmental boundaries is obvious, as it operates as an open system, receiving external inputs and producing finished prod-ucts, waste, information and knowledge. For the industry level, such research is more complex due to the ambiguity of un-derstanding the boundaries of the system that separate the scope of research from it. Another aspect of the study of the exter-nal environment is the determination of its structure by a set of factors or their groups that in one way or another affect the processes within the system under study. The aim of the article is to propose a method of modeling the influence of environmental factors on innovative de-velopment and on its basis to determine the results of the influence of factors on the resulting feature with determining the effectiveness of levers of innovative development of the agricultural sector. Results. In order to reflect the impact of environmental factors on achieving the goals of innovative development of the agricultural sector of Ukraine and determine the effectiveness of levers to achieve these goals, modeling was performed based on cognitive maps, which established positive and negative relationships between factors, levers and resulting parame-ters. As a result of the analysis, the effectiveness levels of the levers of innovation development were established: "inactive", "ineffective", "weak", "active", "effective", "highly effective" and the value of the degree of threat or favorable external factors. It is determined that the most effective levers should be the volume of funding for scientific activities in the agricul-tural sector and the activities of the subjects of the contour of innovation infrastructure. It was found that the most threaten-ing were domestic factors of market failure of innovative products and lack of information and advisory support to produc-ers in the implementation of innovations, which confirms the urgency of creating regional innovation ecosystems with the active support of state institutions. Keywords: modeling, external environment, innovative development, levers of innovative development, agrarian sector of economy.