Krisis Subprima dan Kemeruapan Harga Saham Mengikut Sektor Ekonomi di Bursa Malaysia

Abstract

ABSTRAK Kertas ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji kemeruapan harga saham mengikut sektor ekonomi di Bursa Malaysia di samping mengenal pasti saham di sektor ekonomi yang meruap secara berkelangsungan. Kaedah ekonometrik siri masa iaitu model ARCH dan GARCH telah digunakan untuk menentukan tahap kemeruapan harga saham dalam tiga tempoh iaitu sebelum, semasa dan selepas krisis subprima. Harga saham dalam sektor kewangan menunjukkan kemeruapan yang berkelangsungan bagi tempoh sebelum dan semasa krisis. Manakala, harga saham di sektor pengeluaran industri merupakan sektor yang paling stabil dalam tempoh semasa krisis. Dapatan model EGARCH pula menunjukkan bahawa hanya harga saham di sektor pembinaan yang meruap secara berpanjangan semasa krisis. Implikasi dasar daripada kajian ini menjelaskan pelabur berpotensi seharusnya memilih saham di sektor pengeluaran industri sebagai portfolio pelaburan mereka kerana mempunyai kemeruapan yang secara relatifnya lebih stabil berbanding dengan sektor yang lain. Strategi pelaburan yang mempelbagaikan portfolio pelaburan dapat mengurangkan elemen risiko dan menjana pulangan. Kata kunci: Kemeruapan; sektor ekonomi; pelaburan; pelabur berpotensi ABSTRACT This paper aims to examine the volatility of stock prices by sub-sectors of the economy in the Malaysian Bourse, and also to identify the sub-sectors that have persistence volatility. Time series econometrics methods namely ARCH and GARCH models are used in identifying the level of stock prices volatility in three periods, that is, before, during and after the subprime crisis. The stock prices of financial sector showed a persistency of volatility for the period of pre and during crisis. While, the stock prices of industrial production sector is relatively the most stable than others in the period of during and post-crisis. The results using EGARCH model revealed that stock prices of construction sector has a persistency of volatility during the crisis periods. The policy implication of this study shows that the potential investors should consider to invest in the industrial production sector because the stock prices is relatively more stable than others sector. Investment strategy to diversify investment portfolio can reduce the element of risk and generate returns. Keywords: Volatility; economic sector; investment; potential investors