Multivectorness as a Way Out of the Impasse of Strategic Vulnerability

Abstract

: The Balkans remains a zone of strategic vulnerability aggravated by the struggle of major global political actors for Serbia, a country that has long been trying to preserve a relative political and military neutrality. Despite serious upheavals at the turn of the 20 th and 21 st centuries, including the dissolution of Yugoslavia, the bombings by NATO, the “divorce” with Montenegro and the creation of the “Republic of Kosovo,” Belgrade has been managing to balance between two major poles of attraction – the EU-NATO and Russia, which fits into the concept of multivectorness. Given all geographic, historical, cultural and economic determinism of European integration, Serbia’s final choice of the European vector is complicated by two sensitive and problematic matters – the need to recognize the “Republic of Kosovo” and the inclusion in the military and political framework of NATO. Moreover, the first issue entails substantial political and civilizational risks, both for the Western Balkans and the European Union as a whole, let alone a dramatic internal split of the Serbian society over the possible recognition of the newly formed independent Albanian entity. On the other hand, Russia, which has unique image opportunities and, unlike the EU, does not aspire to play the role of an “empire by invitation”, is a natural counterbalance to the Euro-Atlantic pressure on Belgrade. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the existing historical dualism of multivectorness is being disrupted by the emergence of China, a new player in the Balkans. By solely economic levers, Beijing has been solving the strategic problems of penetration into European markets and simultaneously smoothly, but sequentially superseding Russia as Serbia’s main alternative to the West. The article analyzes the tactic employed by Chinese companies and concludes that there has been a growing concealed competition between the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation for the place of the main non-European actor not only in Serbia but in the Balkans as a whole. In such circumstances, by preserving the policy of multivectorness (despite all criticism of the concept), Serbia may find a way out of the impasse of strategic vulnerability, i.e., to achieve a if only short-term, of the status quo of political,