How can remote sensing and GIS help in the verification of international treaties?

Abstract

This research is designed to investigate how remote sensing and GIS can be used in the verification regime of International Treaties-It focuses on the semantic difference and transformation from the goals of a treaty to the observable and verifiable elements. A case study for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) is presented, demonstrating the potential capabilities for the use of Satellite Imagery and Remote Sensing as a verification technology for the use on an On-Site Inspection (OSI) to narrow down the search area for an unknown underground event or a possible underground nuclear explosion. GIS, by spatially linking different layers of information, acts as a logical analytical tool to overview all the inputs for the verification. In simpler words, it adds up all the clues automatically in order to view the whole situation. For example, in the case of a CTBT verification regime, one has multiple data layers in the GIS database representing various technologies. One layer for the Seismic network and findings, another layer for the radionuclide measurements, and another for the visual observation findings. By overlaying all those layers together and by performing spatial querying in the GIS database, suspicious areas are denoted and identified, and hence an On-Site Inspection can be called to concentrate on those areas at first instead of the whole Inspection Area thus saving time and resources. It is clearly demonstrated that Satellite Imagery and GIS are useful tools and technologies in the verification regime for CTB treaty. However, it has to be understood that satellite imagery and GIS alone are insufficient, they have to be used together with all the other technologies stated in the treaty (e.g. seismic, radionuclide, etc.) and that they can not be the only technology used for the verification. Even though they are a powerful tool, they are strongly dependant on human operators and if the analyst makes a mistake in one of his approaches, the whole azimuth of the results shifts towards a wrong solution. Therefore, Satellite Imagery and GIS when integrated with other technologies acts as a strengthening tool to strengthen or weaken the assumptions but not as a litmus test giving a yes or no answer.