Economic Dimension of Aging of the Population on the Example of the Czech Republic

Jaroslav Šetek, Jiří Alina, M. Vlčková, Eliška Poláčková
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Abstract

The paper, elaborated by an interdisciplinary approach of social sciences (especially economics, sociology, demography and economic policy theories), is focused on the current interconnection of demographic issues of the Czech Republic with social policy at the regional level. The application of methods of analysis, comparison and synthesis evaluates the impacts of population aging in the dimensions of the social system (pensions, social services) and health care. These dimensions are an expression of intergenerational solidarity and an integral part of the state's public finances. As a result of the aging population, Czech public finances are not sustainable despite the expected growth of the economy and tax revenues. Provided current fiscal policy is maintained, public debt would rise to 230% of gross domestic product in 2068. This forecast is also confirmed by the application of generational accounting methods through an intergenerational index, which, based on current economic and social policy trends, foresees a long-term imbalance in public finances within the social and health system of the Czech Republic.
人口老龄化的经济维度——以捷克为例
该文件采用社会科学(特别是经济学、社会学、人口学和经济政策理论)的跨学科方法编写,重点是目前捷克共和国人口问题与区域一级社会政策的相互联系。运用分析、比较和综合方法评估人口老龄化对社会制度(养恤金、社会服务)和保健各方面的影响。这些方面是代际团结的表现,也是国家公共财政的组成部分。由于人口老龄化,尽管经济和税收有望增长,捷克的公共财政却不可持续。如果维持目前的财政政策,到2068年,公共债务将升至国内生产总值(gdp)的230%。通过代际指数采用代际会计方法也证实了这一预测,根据目前的经济和社会政策趋势,代际指数预测了捷克共和国社会和保健系统内公共财政的长期不平衡。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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