Performance degradation prediction of hydropower unit based on grey prediction model

Abstract

A performance degradation model of hydropower unit is proposed based on three-dimensional surface. In the model, the influence of active power and working head of hydropower unit is analyzed. The grey prediction model (GM (1, 1) model) is used to predict the performance degradation trend of hydropower unit. Real data of condition monitoring are utilized to verify the proposed method. Results show that the presented method can effectively predict the change trend of hydropower unit performance degradation time series.