Application of a Hybrid Neural Fuzzy Inference System to Forecast Solar Intensity

Abstract

This paper presents a proposal for the use of the Hybrid Fuzzy Inference System algorithm (HyFIS) as solar intensity forecast mechanism. Fuzzy Inference Systems (FIS) are used to solve regression problems in various contexts. The HyFIS is a method based on FIS with the particular advantage of combining fuzzy concepts with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), thus optimizing the learning process. This algorithm is part of several other FIS algorithms implemented in the Fuzzy Rule-Based Systems (FRBS) package of R. The ANN algorithms and Support Vector Machine (SVM), both widely used for solving regression problems, are also used in this study to allow the comparison of results. Results show that HyFIS presents higher performance when compared to the ANN and SVM, when applied to real data of Florianopolis, Brazil, which helps to reinforce the potential of this algorithm in solving the solar intensity forecasting problems.