Practical Solutions for Energy Transition Emerging in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Africa’s role in the global energy transition is undeniable as the least electrified yet fastest-growing continent on the globe, crucially in need of economic development and investment in climate resilience. Africa is on track to become the most populous continent by 2050, housing almost 80% of the world’s poor, almost 90% of those without energy access, and the most climate-vulnerable communities—all while having contributed less than 5% of global carbon emissions. Delivering climate-proofed prosperity to this growing population will require paying major attention to the continent’s energy systems, which remain underdeveloped and severely under-resourced. Africa’s power systems are largely underdeveloped, in part given the historical context in which its power utilities emerged. This presents African countries with a set of circumstances and challenges in achieving universal energy access and energy sector growth which are much different from those faced by their advanced energy market counterparts. At roughly 230 GW of installed generation, the entire continent’s generation capacity is roughly half that of India alone [1]. To truly deliver sustainable economies, dignified jobs, and prosperity for all, power supply must grow significantly—and is expected to quadruple by 2040 [2]. However, this energy system expansion is complex, especially given the immense difficulty of securing investment from the international finance community to further expand renewables on the continent; the very real and practical challenges of delivering mass amounts of reliable power entirely through intermittent renewable resources; the challenge of bringing full sectors such as transportation onto grid, far less weak grids; and the continent’s growing industrialization agenda which involves many non-electricity energy feedstock needs. With the international energy agency (IEA)’s conclusion that no new oil or gas reserves could be explored or developed to stay under the global 1.5 C threshold, Africa’s energy transitions and the role of abundant domestic fuels such as natural gas have now become a timely and polarizing debate. As such, dialogues around Africa’s future energy systems are intensifying. There is a risk that some positions are hardening, and that the space for fact-based discussion on key topics, including as the role of fossil fuels, is narrowing. In a vacuum of comprehensive and digestible data, and spaces that prioritize local voice, there is a grave risk of predetermining Africa’s options, rather than co-developing ambitious, credible new pathways based on perspective sharing and the pledge of support. This is an urgent risk to mitigate against. Energy transition decisions and policy determined now will carry tremendous weight, with nearand long-term implications for Africa’s economic trajectories, carbon lock-in, international partnerships, trust, and multilateralism, and moreover, the prosperity of millions. This Focus Issue aims to inject into the dialogues and debates a substantive body of work from predominantly local scholars across the continent that helps unpack the practical challenges of delivering Just Transitions. This Focus Issue explores the ways in which energy service delivery influences and can be influenced by other system transformations on the continent. The Issue aims to identify novel tools, methods and insights that can contribute to faster, efficient, and cost-effective delivery of energy plans, as well as the challenges and opportunities therein, and to grow the research base for energy transition dialogue in Africa.