Study on Tourism Prospect Prediction Based on Grey Model

Abstract

Taking tourism development of Shennongjia as an example, the tourism prediction model is established to provide scientific data support for the tourism development strategy and decision-making in this area. [Method]Shennongjia tourism prospect prediction model is established, through grey correlation model GM (1,1) and time-series method, using a computer simulation program for the actual model of operation, Shennongjia tourism prospects are predicted and prediction models are verified. [Result]Total reception numbers of Shennongjia from 2014 to 2021 posterior difference ratio C=0.129<0.35,small error probability P=1>0.95, total tourism income of Shennongjia from 2014-2021 posterior difference ratio C=0.1<0.35,small error probability P=1>0.95.[Conclusion]According to the reference table of the model accuracy test grade, the model accuracy grade is 1 (good), which can be used for prediction. At the same time, it is predicted that the total tourism income of Shennongjia will exceed 10 billion yuan for the first time by 2025.This is according with the goal that Shennongjia government strive to achieve in 2025. This model can make more accurate predictions for other tourist areas when the data is incomplete.