«Texas hold’em»: transition from the strategic stability matrix to the new framework of the world order

Abstract

The pandemic of COVID-19 became the real catalyst of global changes, having had the strongest impact on all aspects of activity, from the relationship between individuals and between society and the state to the formation of a new world order. Global inequalities have increased, including the lack of equitable access to vaccines against COVID-19, which, with competing systems competing for reputational gain, acquire the status of hybrid weapons. With regard to the emerging world order, it can already be stated that it is distinctly asymmetric and difficult to predict: the basic characteristics are global uncertainty, a large number of new world actors, including off-system players, nonlinearity, randomness and fragmentation. The author suggests that the arms control agenda is gradually losing its defining character for international relations: the principle of strategic stability ceases to be the basis of the world order. The growing tension in relations between Russia and the West is taking place against the background of a Washington-inspired unified position of the «collective West» that Russia will have to deal with, at least in the short to medium term. The basis of this position is a bet on a large-scale deterrence of Russia with the possibility of maintaining a targeted dialogue on a limited range of issues.