The robustness risk and selection optimization of R&D project portfolio under uncertainty

Abstract

Facing the complexity of project portfolios selection, such as the uncertainty, interaction effects between projects and its influence on the project risk and selection, this paper proposed the conception of project portfolio robustness risk. Which is described from three aspects of; project risk, interaction effects and control costs, and is measured by the theory of the node load and node processing capacity. Then considering the uncertainty, a fuzzy project portfolio optimization model for profit maximum based on the constraint of project portfolio robustness risk and resource is established. According to the model, the improved quantum genetic algorithm is designed and an example is given. The result shows that the traditional model exclude the kind of project which can increase profit and take the risk after the project is selected into the portfolio. In addition, the model proposed in this paper can not only provide effective decision support for decision maker but also decrease the possibility of failure due to the unreasonable selection.