Water quality impacts of climate change, land use, and population growth in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

IF 2.6 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL
Gopal Bhatt, Lewis Linker, Gary Shenk, Isabella Bertani, Richard Tian, Jessica Rigelman, Kyle Hinson, Peter Claggett
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Abstract

The 2010 Chesapeake Bay Total Maximum Daily Load was established for the water quality and ecological restoration of the Chesapeake Bay. In 2017, the latest science, data, and modeling tools were used to develop revised Watershed Implementation Plans (WIPs). In this article, we examine the vulnerability of the Chesapeake Bay watershed to the combined pressures of climate change and growth in population, agricultural intensity, and economic activity for the 60-year period 1995–2055. The results will be used to revise WIPs, as needed, to account for expected increases in loads. Assessing changes relative to 1995 for the years 2025, 2035, 2045, and 2055, mean annual precipitation increases of 3.11%, 4.21%, 5.34%, and 6.91%, respectively, air temperature increases of 1.12, 1.45, 1.84, and 2.12°C, respectively, and potential evapotranspiration increases of 3.36%, 4.43%, 5.54%, and 6.35%, respectively, are projected. Population in the watershed is expected to grow by 3.5 million between 2025 and 2055. Watershed model results show incremental increases in streamflow (2.3%–6.2%), nitrogen (2.6%–10.8%), phosphorus (4.5%–26.7%), and sediment (3.8%–18.8%) loads to the tidal Bay due to climate change. Growth in population, agricultural intensity, development, and economic activity resulted in relatively smaller increases in loads compared to climate change.

Abstract Image

切萨皮克湾流域气候变化、土地利用和人口增长对水质的影响
2010 年切萨皮克湾最大日负荷总量是为切萨皮克湾的水质和生态恢复而制定的。2017 年,最新的科学、数据和建模工具被用于制定经修订的流域实施计划 (WIP)。在本文中,我们研究了切萨皮克湾流域在 1995-2055 年这 60 年间面对气候变化以及人口、农业密度和经济活动增长的综合压力时的脆弱性。研究结果将用于根据需要修订 WIP,以考虑到负荷的预期增长。评估 2025 年、2035 年、2045 年和 2055 年相对于 1995 年的变化,预计年平均降水量分别增加 3.11%、4.21%、5.34% 和 6.91%,气温分别增加 1.12、1.45、1.84 和 2.12°C,潜在蒸散量分别增加 3.36%、4.43%、5.54% 和 6.35%。2025 年至 2055 年期间,流域内的人口预计将增加 350 万。流域模型结果显示,由于气候变化,潮汐湾的溪流(2.3%-6.2%)、氮(2.6%-10.8%)、磷(4.5%-26.7%)和沉积物(3.8%-18.8%)负荷将逐步增加。与气候变化相比,人口、农业密度、发展和经济活动的增长导致的负荷增加相对较小。
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来源期刊
Journal of The American Water Resources Association
Journal of The American Water Resources Association 环境科学-地球科学综合
CiteScore
4.10
自引率
12.50%
发文量
100
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: JAWRA seeks to be the preeminent scholarly publication on multidisciplinary water resources issues. JAWRA papers present ideas derived from multiple disciplines woven together to give insight into a critical water issue, or are based primarily upon a single discipline with important applications to other disciplines. Papers often cover the topics of recent AWRA conferences such as riparian ecology, geographic information systems, adaptive management, and water policy. JAWRA authors present work within their disciplinary fields to a broader audience. Our Associate Editors and reviewers reflect this diversity to ensure a knowledgeable and fair review of a broad range of topics. We particularly encourage submissions of papers which impart a ''take home message'' our readers can use.
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