Ecological status assessment and driving factors of Pearl River Delta, China: An ecological footprint approach

Abstract

The state of ecological security is directly related to the sustainable development of the region, especially for urban agglomerations with high population density and intensive economic activities. However, assessment of urban ecological status changes from the perspective of the entire eco-economic system is still lacking. In this paper, a three-dimensional emergy ecological footprint model (3DEEF) that distinguishes between natural capital stocks and natural capital flows was introduced to assess the spatio-temporal variation in natural capital utilization of the Pearl River Delta from 2007 to 2016, and nine cities were divided into three groups according to their ecological status evaluation results. Then, internal driving factors of ecological pressure were identified using Partial least squares (PLS) method. The results show that the whole region is in a state of severe ecological pressure that is higher than the national average level. In particular, the three cities of Group1(Shenzhen, Dongguan, Zhuhai) show the highest ecological risk. Economic development and population size are the main drivers of increased demand for ecosystems. These findings could be a reference for regional economic structure optimization and policy formulation.