The Dynamic Growth of China’s Aquatic Product Export to Thailand: Based on the CMS (Constant Market Share) Model

Abstract

Based on the aquatic product trade data from 2002 to 2018, this paper uses the Constant Market Share (CMS) model to analyze the influencing factors of China's aquatic product export growth to Thailand in stages and at different levels. The results show that the increase in the scale of Thailand aquatic product import demand is the most important factor in promoting the expansion of China-Thailand aquatic product export. The enhancement of China's export competitiveness of aquatic products has little effect on bilateral trade. The interactive effect of export competitiveness and the scale of demand indirectly promote the growth of trade. Therefore, it is believed that China should gradually innovate the production methods of aquatic products, optimize product production and trade structure, and realize the stable and sustainable growth of China-Thailand aquatic product export.