Forecasting Model of Wheat Yield in Relation to Rainfall Variability in North Africa Countries

Abstract

The study investigated the effect of rainfall variations on wheat yield in Morocco as a representative case study of North Africa region. The data were collected for the period 2004– 2015 from 12 meteorological stations. The wheat yield variability range was 79.5%-38.0%. It increased in poor-rain years and the regions of precipitation ≤ 350 mm. The wheat yield showed more significant response to monthly perception changes than the annual. The estimated forecasting model showed that March's rain was the critical month for wheat yield as the elasticity of production was 0.587. April and May showed an elasticity of 0.011 and 0.023, respectively. The estimated response of wheat farm price to grain yield showed that 10% increase in wheat yield would decrease the farm gate price by 4.1%, i.e. poor rainy seasons mean income foregone with the loss of inputs expenses and expansion in imported wheat. A country buffer stock, a regional strategic stock of wheat and supplementary water for irrigation in poor precipitation years are required.