POPULATION EXPOSURE TO PM2.5 POLLUTION AND ASSOCIATED LUNG CANCER DEATHS IN THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA BASED ON MULTI-SATELLITE RETRIEVALS: A CASE STUDY IN 2013

Abstract

The spatial distribution of PM 2.5 population exposure is a key factor to the estimation of the health impacts of PM 2.5 . By combining the PM 2.5 data retrieved from MODIS satellite and the population spatial distribution data in the Yangtze River Delta which were estimated by the random forest model with the night light, vegetation index, elevation and slope of satellite remote sensing, the population exposure intensity of PM 2.5 and the risk of lung cancer death in 2013 were calculated. The results show that the spatial distribution of PM 2.5 population exposure intensity is spatially discontinuous, which is consistent with the spatial distribution of population but inconsistent with the spatial distribution of PM 2.5 concentration. Generally, the regions of high exposure intensity include Shanghai, most of Jiangsu Province, the central and southern half of Anhui Province and some coastal cities in Zhejiang Province. The lung cancer deaths caused by PM 2.5 pollution are consistent with the spatial distribution of PM 2.5 exposure intensity. Among the four major cities, relative to the baseline situation, the largest increment in lung cancer deaths caused by PM 2.5 in 2013 is in Shanghai (1565), and the smallest is in Hefei (570). In 2013, the total number of lung cancer deaths caused by PM 2.5 exposure in the Yangtze River Delta is 14000. Our findings indicates that moderate-resolution information from multi-satellite retrievals can help to