Climate Models Accumulated Cyclone Energy Analysis

Abstract

Looking at the connection between tropical cyclones and climate changes due to anthropogenic and natural effects, this work aims for information on understanding and how physical aspects of tropical cyclones may change, with a focus on accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), in a global warming scenario. In the present climate evaluation, reasonable results were obtained for the ACE index; the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models with lower horizontal and vertical resolution showed more difficulties in representing the index, while Max Planck Institute model demonstrated ability to simulate the climate with more accurate, presenting values of both ACE and maximum temperature close to NCEP Reanalysis 2. The MPI-ESM1-2-HR projections suggest that the seasons and their interannual variations in cyclonic activity will be affected by the forcing on the climate system, in this case, under the scenario of high GHG emissions and high challenges to mitigation SSP585. The results indicate to a future with more chances of facing more tropical cyclone activity, plus the mean increase of 3.1°C in maximum daily temperatures, and more heavy cyclones and stronger storms with more frequency over the North Atlantic Ocean may be experimented, as indicated by other studies.