逆向房貸與退休族群消費及經濟成長間關係之探討

Abstract

我國政府於2015年開始辦理商業型逆向抵押貸款 (reverse mortgage)，俗稱「以房養老」，旨在協助擁有不動產的高齡族群解決其資產中不動產流動性不足的問題，進而達成活化資產之目的。自2015年開辦至2020年底，商業型不動產逆向抵押貸款核貸件數僅有四千餘件。為了解他國實施之經驗及對消費及經濟之影響，本研究以美國經驗為例，探討以房養老制度是否能達到刺激老年族群消費動能並帶動整體經濟環境的活絡。本研究以自我迴歸分配落遲模型，分析美國2010年第一季至2018年第二季高齡者消費支出、經濟成長率與逆向房貸數量及其他總體經濟變數間之關係。實證結果顯示，依美國之經驗，逆向房貸之推動確實可顯著增加高齡人口之消費支出額，亦可顯著提升經濟成長。因此，參考美國經驗，政府應多加推廣以房養老政策，使銀髮族群透過此機制活化資產，進而刺激消費動能，以達到永續活絡整體經濟之目的。  In solving the problems of healthcare, along with its longevity, the Taiwan government introduced the reverse mortgage (RM) mechanism for retired groups to revitalize real estate for their living and healthcare expenses. However, there were only less than 5,000 applications for the RM from 2015 to 2020. This study explores the experience of RM implemented in the US through employing the volume of RM applications and other macroeconomic variables on retired individuals’ consumption, and the subsequent economic momentum in the Auto-Regression Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The sample period ranges from 2010Q1 to 2018Q2. Empirical results suggest that the RM application volume has a significant positive effect on the consumption of the elderly and economic growth. Taiwan’s government can take the experience in the U.S. as a lesson to revitalize the real estate properties of retired individuals, stimulate their consumption, solve healthcare problems, and continue economic development.