Load Forecasting Method of EVs Based on Time Charging Probability

Abstract

Electric vehicle load forecasting is the technical basis for the development of electric vehicle charging strategies and the location planning of charging piles. It is of great significance for the development of smart cities and intelligent transportation. This paper proposes a load forecasting method for electric vehicles based on the time charging probability. Firstly, the main factors affecting load forecasting are described. Secondly, the electric cars are divided into four categories according to typical travel characteristics, and a mathematical model of the corresponding influence factors is established. Then, the charging probability of the electric vehicle at each time is derived, and the charging load of the electric vehicle is calculated by the Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the validity of the method is verified by using the electric vehicle load forecast in Shenzhen city as an example.