Research on the GM(1,1)-Markov chain model of highway freight volume forecasting

Abstract

To improve the forecasting accuracy of highway freight volume, this paper establishes a GM-Markov model based on the general model. It is an optimal integration of the grey prediction method with a Markov prediction model. A grey model GM(1,1) is used to predict total trend of random time series, while a Markov model is used to predict the fluctuant change to get the solution of data a trend model of random time series. By actual data analysis of highway freight volume, the results show the GM-Markov model can predict the total trend of data series with random parameters. It is adapted to the change of random series with large fluctuations and its prediction accuracy is better than that of the GM(1,1).