Risk Control Through Evaluation of Catastrophic Scenarios

Abstract

In sectors where pipelines cross areas exposed to severe hazards or where the consequences are serious, traditional analyses based on the Risk Analysis Matrix (RAM) do not reflect the effect of the works and actions taken for risk control. That condition induces the idea of ineffectiveness or uselessness of the works and actions taken for protection and reinforcement. In this paper, for those situations it is proposed the analysis of hypothetical scenarios to determine which of them can become catastrophic, in order to assess which situations can trigger a catastrophe, and in consequence to take actions regarding them and thus to avoid the catastrophic situation. The suggested method consists in proposing scenarios of damages, corresponding an event of loss of product containment of a hydrocarbon transport system. In those scenarios, the following consequences of the oil spill are determined: the behaviour of the product, its route, the site of rupture, the possible threats that affect it, and the triggers of the threatening processes. Critical or catastrophic scenarios are selected and the chain of events regarding them is determined as detailed as possible. When analysing that chain, it is possible to find actions that may modify it, such as the control of the route so that it does not reach the sensitive elements, the strengthening of the pipeline to bear the hazards, the reinforcement of the ground to prevent the action of the hazards and to avoid that the hazard takes place. It must be determined how to protect the exposed elements and how to handle the spilled product to avoid the affectation of the elements mentioned above. For this point, it is important to know the infrastructure of the Contingency Plan and therefore to evaluate the possibility of strengthening it.