Stochastic Simulation Modelling and Analysis of Out-Patient flow: A Case Study of General Hospital Hadejia, North-western Nigeria

Abstract

Increasing demand for health care coupled with resource constraints may lead to overcrowding in health care center. Generally, patient flow into health care center is characterized by variability due to its stochastic behavior. In recent years, there has been increasing interest in Discrete Event Simulation (DES) technique in healthcare systems due to its sensitivity to systems’ variability. Discrete Event Simulation (DES) technique is used in this study to examine patient flow in an urban health care center, the General Hospital Hadejia (GHH), with a view to analyzing resource utilization, minimizing waiting time, and improving efficiency and effectiveness. Data relating to waiting time, service time, and movements of patients between departments within the health center were collected and analyzed. The influence of operational policies on the efficient movement of patients during peak and off-peak demand periods is studied. Results of the discrete event simulation experiment show an average increase of 41% of patients’ visits to the hospital when the existing layout of the hospital is modified.