The System Dynamic and Compram Methodologies for Modelling, Simulation and Forecasting of Road Safety of Uzbekistan

Abstract

Abstract In Uzbekistan, about 2,000 people die every year as a result of a traffic accident. At the same time, according to the Pulitzer Centre on Crisis Reporting, the Republic has the lowest rate in road mortality among the countries in the Central Asian region - for every 100,000 people, it is 11.32 people. Losses from road accidents in Uzbekistan equivalent up to 2.8% of GDP that is also one of the lowest indicators. But according to traffic safety experts, the losses from accidents are greater than reported data. Nowadays there are a lot of methods to analyse and ensure road safety and traffic management on the roads. The authors believe that road safety is a complex societal problem not only in Uzbekistan but all over the world. One of these methods is System Dynamic (SD) and COMplex PRoblem hAndling Methodology (COMPRAM). In this work, the Vensim PLE SD software tool (it is one SD tool amongst many others) has been used to perform the SD modelling of the case study at hand. In the methods of system dynamics, a computer model is created using a graphical technique for constructing flow diagrams and causal relationships of the system under study and then simulated on a computer. COMPRAM allows us to figure out the way to handle complex societal problems while involving a System Dynamics (SD) simulation option. There are similarities between COMPRAM and the traditional way of analysing road safety. In traditional ways, each element or factor is studied as a separate phenomenon. These indicators are studied in the stages of COMPRAM. This article has been studied a different aspect of how road accidents happen. The developed a comparison (according to six criteria) of the different modelling paradigms which have been historically used to assess road safety. Also, the authors made a comparison of the COMPRAM methodology with the traditional road safety assessment approach to highlight similarities and differences.