Does the forced marriage have a fair start? Acquisition Valuation in the Oil and Gas Holding Company Indonesian State-Owned Enterprise-A Case Study

Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Business and Management Research (ICBMR 2018) Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI:10.2991/ICBMR-18.2019.49

Lutfi Benarto, Edward Tanujaya

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Abstract

Indonesia’s gas market will continue to expand to support the growing economy. The country’s gas demand is expected to increase by another 1,600 mmcfd from 2017, reaching 5,100 mmcfd in 2035 (Wood McKenzie Report 2017). The establishment of an oil and gas holding company by the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises is considered as one way to avoid duplication of natural gas downstream management of two major players: PT PGN Tbk and PT Pertagas. This review aims to analyze all financial aspects related to the acquisition plan to address the investors’ concerns. We use a discounted cash flow method; company comparable analysis is used for the valuation with sensitivity analysis to gas price in the growth projection. Value of the synergy is obtained by value of the combined firm (with synergy) minus the value of the combined firm (with no synergy). Our conclusion is the acquisition will generate a synergy of 1.03 Billion USD and the value of Pertagas is between 1.16 – 1.23 Billion USD without the synergy effect.

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强迫婚姻有一个公平的开始吗?印尼国有企业油气控股公司收购估值研究

印尼的天然气市场将继续扩大，以支持不断增长的经济。该国的天然气需求预计将在2017年的基础上再增加16百万吨/天，到2035年达到5100百万吨/天(Wood McKenzie Report 2017)。国有企业部成立石油和天然气控股公司被认为是避免两家主要公司(PT PGN Tbk和PT Pertagas)天然气下游管理重复的一种方法。本审查旨在分析与收购计划相关的所有财务方面，以解决投资者的担忧。我们使用现金流量贴现法;公司可比性分析用于估值，在增长预测中对天然气价格进行敏感性分析。协同效应的价值由合并后企业的价值(有协同效应)减去合并后企业的价值(无协同效应)得到。我们的结论是，此次收购将产生10.3亿美元的协同效应，而在没有协同效应的情况下，Pertagas的价值在11.6 - 12.3亿美元之间。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Business and Management Research (ICBMR 2018)

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