LONG-TERM DEMOGRAPHIC FORECASTING IN THE NEW REALITIES

Abstract

The author cites long-term demographic projections of the United Nations, the Institute for Health Measurement and Evaluation (IHME), the Joint Center of the Institute for Mathematical Research of Complex Systems (Lomonosov Moscow State University) and the Wittgenstein Center for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA + WCDGHC). According to the forecasts of these organizations, depopulation awaits Russia. The article presents calculations carried out by scientists of the CEMI RAS based on a demographic agent-­based model.The first scenario is associated with the initiation of the process of deurbanization, which involves an increase in the proportion of people living in rural areas, the second — with a gradual increase in the volume of medical services provided. The article also describes scenarios for the development of demographic systems in most countries of the world, obtained on the basis of an agent-­based model created by scientists from the CEMI RAS, and foreign experience in stimulating the birth rate. It is concluded that it is difficult to isolate the influence of a single factor on the increase in the total fertility rate. Accordingly, in order to really reverse the trend of depopulation, the simultaneous influence of many factors is needed.