The Demand for Commodity Insurance by Developing Country Agricultural Producers: Theory and an Application to Cocoa in Ghana

A. Sarris
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引用次数: 44

Abstract

The author considers the benefit to agricultural producers of commodity price insurance that provides in every year-but in advance of the resolution of production and price uncertainty-a minimum price for a fixed or variable portion of production. Under the assumption that producers do not change their long term production and income diversification pattern, the author suggests a theoretical framework that leads to explicit formulas of the benefit in providing this type of insurance. He shows that this benefit depends not only on the actuarially fair insurance premium, but also on household-specific factors that depend on the attitudes to risk, the consumption smoothing parameters, and the household-specific exposures to income risks. The author applies the theoretical framework for Ghana, using the Ghana Living Standards Survey data to specify various classes of cocoa-producing households and monthly price data for both domestic and international prices, to formulate appropriate models for ascertaining price risks faced by producers. The author gives empirical estimates of the actuarially fair premium, and shows that they are smaller than market-based put option prices from organized exchanges. The overall benefit in providing minimum price insurance to households, however, turns out to be substantially higher than the actuarially fair premiums and the market-based put option prices. This is due to both the magnitude of the uncertainties facing the households, as well as their risk and consumption smoothing behavior.
发展中国家农业生产者对商品保险的需求:理论及对加纳可可的应用
作者考虑了商品价格保险对农业生产者的好处,这种保险每年为固定或可变部分的生产提供最低价格,但在生产和价格不确定性解决之前。在假设生产者不改变其长期生产和收入多样化模式的前提下,作者提出了一个理论框架,该框架可以推导出提供这种保险的明确收益公式。他表明,这种收益不仅取决于精算公平的保险费,还取决于家庭特定因素,这些因素取决于对风险的态度、消费平滑参数和家庭特定的收入风险暴露。作者将理论框架应用于加纳,使用加纳生活水平调查数据来指定可可生产家庭的各个类别以及国内和国际价格的月度价格数据,以制定适当的模型来确定生产者面临的价格风险。作者给出了精算公平溢价的实证估计,并表明它们小于有组织交易所的基于市场的看跌期权价格。然而,向家庭提供最低价格保险的总体效益,却大大高于精算公平保费和基于市场的看跌期权价格。这是由于家庭面临的不确定性的大小,以及他们的风险和消费平滑行为。
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