Innovative Application of Grey System Power Model and the Forecasting of Chinese Real Effective Exchange Rate under Information Fluctuation with Saturated Mode

Abstract

Taking the data of Chinese real effective exchange rate (REER) as sample, the grey system Verhulst model is employed to investigate the changing tendencies innovatively. The forecasting result indicates that Chinese REER will depreciate with the improved accuracy of 97.35% by weakening operator. Only ten month data is employed, which overcomes the sample limitation of general statistical models and proves the forecasting efficiency of the Verhulst model. Additionally, the forecasting result is in line with the internal and external economic environment, and hence, the robustness is demonstrated significantly. According to the total simulation process, the applicability of the Verhulst model has been revealed successfully.