THREE SCENARIOS FOR REGIONAL GEOPOLITICAL DYNAMICS AFTER THE TALIBAN RETURNED TO POWER IN AFGHANISTAN

Abstract

On 14 April 2021, US President Joe Biden announced that, starting on 1 May (2021), US troops will withdraw from Afghanistan, ending 20 years of war on Taliban terrorism. At a first glance, the Americans’ decision seems to be a hasty withdrawal from a very costly war of attrition. On closer inspection, however, the events in Afghanistan seem to part of a realpolitik strategy, which seeks to reset the geopolitical game in Eurasia and beyond. So, what could be the potential geopolitical impact of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan? How could the regional game be reset after August 2021? This article, written immediately after the “fall” of Kabul on 15 August 2021, and the return to power of the Taliban in Afghanistan, proposes three scenarios for regional geopolitical dynamics and their global implications.