Prediction of international crude oil futures price based on GM(1,1)

Abstract

Grey prediction method is characterized by small amount data, simple calculation and accurate prediction. On the basis of WTI crude oil futures monthly price of New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) from June 2008 to Feb 2009, this paper gives a grey prediction model of intentional crude oil prices. The results show that the model of GM (1,1) is suitable for crude oil prices forecast. It predicts that the crude oil price on Feb 2009 is $37.55 per barrel. In contrast with the actual market price, the prediction accuracy is as high as 95.62%.