Effect of Changes in Fertility Rate and Demographic Structure on Housing Prices: Centering on Dongtan New Town

Abstract

As a result of analyzing the influence of variables related to the demographic structure, it was found that the price of apartments traded at a time when the total fertility rate was high, the lower the price. In the case of acetic age, the price of apartments traded at a time when the acetic age was higher was found to be lower. It was found that the ratio of single-person households had a negative effect on apartment transaction prices, and the ratio of double-person households had a positive effect on apartment transaction prices. These results suggest that transaction prices tend to fall as apartments traded at a time when the number of single-person households composed of unmarried or students increases. On the contrary, it was found that apartments traded at a time when more double-person households move in are more likely to rise in price. The elderly ratio was found to have no significant effect on apartment transaction prices, but the higher the price of apartments traded at a time when more people in their 60s moved in. In addition, it was found that the high proportion of people in their 60s moved in and apartment prices rose during the period when their transactions were concentrated, mainly in high-priced apartment complexes. These results suggest that changes in fertility rates and demographic structure have a significant impact on apartment prices in new cities. Therefore, it seems important to predict changes in the fertility rate and demographic structure of the region when deciding on apartment supply policies to prevent soaring apartment prices.