Credit Risk Forecast and Assessment of Automobile Supply Chain Finance Based on Proportional Hazards Model

Abstract

Supply chain finance is developed to settle such problems, such as financing difficulties among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), banks' business dilemma, and supply chain fragility. In recent year, supply chain finance in the automobile industry is developing rapidly. However, due to the complexity of automobile supply chain, there are still some business risks, among which credit risks account for a large proportion. To promote the development of automobile SMEs and reduce the risks in the financing process, we predict the potential credit risk points of the automobile industry and construct the evaluation index system. The proportional hazards model (Cox model) is estimated on data from China Stock Market & Accounting Research Database (CSMAR database). The data comprise 95 listed automobile SMEs from 2010 to 2019. The results show that two indexes (current asset turnover and shareholder equity turnover) are included in Cox model. In addition, in order to test the accuracy of Cox model, 25 enterprises compose test set. The accuracy of test results is 72%, which means that the cox model predicts well.