Identifying, Evaluating, and Adapting to Risks in an Atmosphere of Uncertainty

Abstract

This paper belongs to the relevant field of empirical risk research in sociology and studies personal risk identification and evaluation in an atmosphere of uncertainty. While empirical data regarding risk perception is quite sufficient, studies have found no sound methodological foundation for reviewing and interpreting risk identification and evaluation, as well as ways in which people adapt to risks throughout their lives. Therefore, we propose a multi-paradigm concept of the system that individuals use to navigate their lives. This concept can be used as an underlining methodology for studying the specific features of identifying, evaluating, and adapting to risks in an atmosphere of uncertainty. We believe that, within the sociological paradigm, the nature of the adaptive process of “navigating uncertainty” lies in structuring it both on the personal and on the institutional level. The analysis of data collected during several regional studies and one national study provides empirical justification of the vital impact that subjective expectations and preferences have on decisionmaking in an atmosphere of uncertainty where the result of such decision-making is not clearly predictable. By evaluating the tolerance of various threat types, we can draw justified conclusions regarding the subjective importance/value of the respective entities. Our study shows that there is a solid cluster of the most vital values, threats to which are least permissible. Such values may be described as “irreplaceable” and “inalienable”; while the less vital values (but threats to which are still considered impermissible) are described as “replaceable” and “alienable”. The results of analyzing the links between the subjective damage perception, along with other elements of the individual’s life navigation system, on the one hand, and the choice of specific strategy to give the uncertain environment some structure (adaptation strategy) will be presented in the next paper.