Energy Transition to Renewable Energy Sources and Its Consequences for Russia

Abstract

Russia, as a key exporter of energy resources, may face the problem of disrupting socio-economic well-being, given the high dependence of the budget on oil revenues. In this context, the country is faced with a strategic dilemma: to try to risky transition to carbon-free technologies, thereby going beyond its priority industry, or to focus on maximizing the benefits of the hydrocarbon industry. Therefore, the digitalization of the industry will help a more balanced and will help to correctly distribute the financial and debt burden, assess industry risks and volatility of global commodity markets. The article discusses the concept of energy transition from traditional non-renewable to environmentally friendly renewable resources to overcome the “Dutch disease” of countries dependent on oil and gas. A review of approaches to the future energy market in 2040-2050 was carried out, based on which two trends can be distinguished: the impossibility of completely abandoning oil and gas and an increase in demand for deep oil refined products for the needs of the chemical industry. The authors conducted a study of the current state of the energy sector in Russia: the production and export of oil, gas and coal – as the main sources of energy in the country. The geographic structure of Russian hydrocarbon exports is estimated and the shift in foreign trade supplies towards the Asia-Pacific region (primarily China) is highlighted. The forecasts of changes in the structure of energy consumption in Europe, as the main importer of Russian oil and gas so far, are presented. It was noted that the production of electric vehicles and, in general, the electrification of industries, together with the support of renewable energy at the state level in the countries of the European Union, creates external economic and foreign policy threats for the Russian Federation. The key problems that complicate the energy transition in the Russian Federation and the reasons for the emergence of these problems are highlighted. The consequences of the country's lag behind the leading energy powers of the world in the field of innovative energy are characterized.