The influence of meteorological parameters under tropical condition on electricity demand characteristic: Indonesia case study

Abstract

As meteorological conditions can be unique in different countries and may have influence on electricity demand, providing demand model to analyze characteristic of demand is useful as obtained information can be used to manage related power systems better. This paper proposes regression based demand model to identify typical characteristic of demand in Indonesia more detail. Three different demand areas (Racing-Area, Poltek-Area, and Paropo Area) in Makassar, Indonesia including their total demand (Total-Area) are analyzed by creating demand model. The demands are correlated with meteorological parameters (temperature functions, relative humidity, and wind speed) and holidays. Individual characteristics are firstly observed to obtain main drivers and their typical effect on each demand area. Furthermore, general characteristics are analyzed to find common characteristic of demand such as what variables influence electricity demand generally. Several options for model are calculated and assessed by statistical tests to get best model. Results indicate more information concerning characteristic of demands can be revealed by models which are well validated. Each demand area has individual characteristic as demand drivers and their effect are relatively different between areas. Other results concerning general characteristic confirm temperature functions, relative humidiy, and holidays are important driver for demand. The variables are quite good to explain electricity demand generally as adjusted coefficient of determination of model (R2') is 76.42%.