Demand Forecasting and Computer Simulation Applied to the Conservative Management Companies

Abstract

This paper shows a Case Study on the use of Demand Forecasting and Computer Simulation techniques carried out in a manufacturing plant with family administration feature that does not use modern techniques proposed by Supply Chain Management experts or Operational Research practitioners. In this context, a new data treatment methodology was proposed, which resulted in the improvement of the demand forecasting accuracy. With the forecasted data, it was possible to analyze the performance of the simulated manufacture flows. These procedures improved the management of resources, taking into account the demand variability and the uncertainties of markets. The Statgraphics Centurion XV and Arena 9.0 softwares were used in order to develop, respectively, Demand Forecasting and Computer Simulation models for the study proposed. Keywords-component— Demand Forecasting, Time Series, Computer Simulation.