SHEWHART’S CONTROL CHARTS IN THE STATE MANAGEMENT OF ECONOMIC SECURITY

Abstract

The low level of Ukraine’s economic security indicates the imperfection of the public administration system. Correlation analysis has shown that economic growth is the dominant condition for social goals achieving of sustainable development. Therefore, the methodological basis for the development of effective measures of public administration of economic security is the provisions of the theory of sustainable development. The foundation of the sustainable development theory is the synergetic principles of self-organization of systems, in particular, the chaos theory. The turbulence of the trajectory of the country’s economic system makes it susceptible to management in the context of unforeseen events («black swans») and economic crises, provoked by medium-long cycles. Today, the COVID-19 pandemic can serve as an example of the «Black Swan» event for the economic systems of the global world. Therefore, the strategic task of public administration in times of chaos should be to maintain the homeostatic balance of the economic system while simultaneously finding new alternatives (attractors) for its sustainable development. To diagnose the economic system state by the level of security (homeostasis) the threshold (permissible, stable) limits of the values of indicators are fundamental, to characterize the level of protection of national economic interests. In domestic practice, to define safety indicator thresholds are used primarily heuristic methods, which based on the expert’s experience and intuition. The subjectivity inherent in heuristic methods does not exclude fundamental errors in the state diagnosis of the economic system by safety level. To prevent subjectivity, it is suggested to use Shewhart’s control charts. The Shewhart’s theory largely corresponds to the basic provisions of the theories of Sustainable Development and the Black Swan. To identify periods of «chaos» and «order» (an unruly and manageable management process) of the development trajectory of the socio-economic system, it is advisable to use combined XmR-chart. The article provides an example of the interpretation of the build XmR-map results for analyzing the manageability of the process of ensuring the Ukraine’s economic security during 1990-2019 years.