A new tool to quantify carbon dioxide emissions from energy use and the impact of energy policies

Abstract

A new tool to quantify carbon dioxide emissions from energy use was developed to provide a simple and transparent framework to quantify the impact of a single policy or a suite of policies on global carbon dioxide emissions. The model was tested for the period 1996–2009 by comparing with the reported emissions from the International Energy Agency. The resulting projections were within 1%, averaged for the 14-year period of historic (reported values). The tool was then employed to model carbon dioxide emissions for a suite of 495 enacted climate and energy policies under three different economic growth scenarios. Projected 2020 carbon dioxide emissions for business as usual were 42.6 ± 2.1 GtCO2. Due to the impact of the full suite of policies, 2020 emissions fell to 35.2 ± 2.1 GtCO2. Lastly, the emissions of the largest 10 CO2 emitters were compared with their Copenhagen targets to provide context. Considering the transparency of the tool presented herein and its ability to model a single policy or a large set of climate and energy policies, it could prove useful to policy-makers and other stake-holders.