Sensitivity analysis on the finance subsidies of regular bus to residents' traveling choice

Abstract

In order to clarify the impact of financial subsidies on residents' travel choice, the paper used the method of multivariate logistic regression to establish residents travel mode choice. And cost-effectiveness analysis was carried out on the traveling choice of bus, with the benefit cost ratio instead of the benefit function in traditional logit model. Taking Beijing for case study, the paper calculates Beijing's current situation both with the unmodified and modified logit model, with the probability of residents choosing bus travel increasing from 31.52% to 41.95%. It shows that modified logit model is more accurately described the actual residents travel choice, other than that, to improve the benefit cost ratio of traveling by bus through subsidies. The finding can be used to increase the probability of residents choosing bus travel by using the way of fiance subsidies, and finally to ease the city's public transportation problem.