The Added-Value of New Debt Indicators for European Countries

Abstract

While the financial crisis of 2008 has shown the insufficient predicting power of the indicators of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), the search for other macroeconomic indicators is worthwhile. The paper tries to underline that - among the indicators discussed in the literature and statistically already available - the net international investment position (NIIP) can be seen as a relative good predictor of a crisis. One of the synthetic weighted indicators presented in this paper (WEIGH IV) has similar qualities and might even benefit more from the separate inclusion of private debt as a sub-indicator.