MARKET OF RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION IN THE REGIONS OF UKRAINE: PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS OF RECOVERY IN THE POST-WAR PERIOD

Abstract

The article analyzes the housing construction market and identifies the main factors restraining its growth. First, the author confirms that the housing construction market suffered a significant blow during the spread of COVID-19, as the decrease in construction volumes amounted to 12.4% compared to the previous year, and the second, more massive pressure was felt by the market after the start of armed warfare in Ukraine (a drop of almost 50%). It was determined that despite rather attractive mortgage lending conditions, the housing market is not experiencing a significant recovery. Secondly, in the regional context, such changes were uneven, for example, during the "covid" period, some regions managed to maintain positive dynamics, such as Poltava and Vinnytsia regions, where the growth was more than 25%, while some regions, on the contrary, "fell rapidly", losing up to 30% of housing construction volumes compared to the previous year (for example, Luhansk region - the fall was more than 60%). At the same time, the correlation between the volume of housing construction and the gross regional product per capita, which were adjusted for the price index, was confirmed, but there is a basic level of income that should ensure "objective quality" of living for households so that they can invest in housing construction. The study shows that, in addition to household incomes, there are other important factors that can become demotivators for the state and dynamics of the housing market. These include the ability of the state and the banking and financial sector to freely dispose of significant amounts of free funds that can be used for construction. At the same time, the risks of economic instability limit the investment potential of the financial institution (as evidenced by the low activity of citizens in participating in the eHouse program). In addition, economic instability has a significant impact on the development ofconstruction. Thus, it was noted that the greater the fluctuations, the worse the results of the industry. Therefore, the key factors restraining the positive dynamics of this market are the following:low investment capacity of the population, economic instability, external factors (the war factor) and expectations of market participants. Demonstrating the differentiation of indicators of development of the housing construction market by region, it is stated that there has been a change in the "landscape" of growth centers - the western regions of Ukraine have been included in them, which is associated with migration processes (relocation of internally displaced persons), and thus contributes to the restoration of the growth rate of the housing construction market in these regions. Therefore, the further development of the housing market will be associated with the search for and attraction of new investors, for example, European governments, implementation of joint projects and grants to restore energy-saving territorial development (including through the construction of social housing), etc.